Research Brief
A recording for this session isn't published. Below is the BPI editorial brief — key takeaways, an in-depth summary, and FAQs drawn from the original session materials and the presenter's body of work.
Presenter
William Rothwell
**With William Rothwell, Professor at Penn State University. Assessing potential for promotion is an important issue in succession planning and in talent management.**
Description
Assessing potential for promotion is an important issue in succession planning and in talent management. How is it possible to know if someone can assume more responsibility in a job with higher responsibility if the employer has never seen the person do that job? That is often the challenge. Yet the research indicates that fewer than 40 percent of U.S. employers assess promotion potential separately from current job performance. The danger, of course, is that it leads to the assumption that success in the present job guarantees success in jobs at higher levels of responsibility. That assumption can lead to mistakes made in promotions, and those mistakes are not easily corrected. This session reviews ways to assess promotion potential separately from measuring present job performance. Upon completing this session, participants will be able to: • Define potential (in more than one way) and distinguish it from performance • Explain why assessing potential is important • Review how potential assessment relates to the larger framework of succession planning and talent management • Describe common and not-so-common ways to assess promotion potential Brief Outline I. Introduction II. Defining Promotion Potential • More than one way to understand the concept • Common definition III. How Promotion Potential Relates to the Framework of Succession Planning and Talent Management IV. Approaches to Assessing Promotion Potential V. Final Questions and Answers William J. Rothwell, Ph.D., SPHR, SHRM-SCP, CPLP Fellow is President of Rothwell & Associates, Inc. and Rothwell & Associates, LLC (see www.rothwellandassociates.com). He is also Professor-in-charge of the Workforce Education and Development program, Department of Learning and Performance Systems, at The Pennsylvania State University, University Park campus. He has authored, co-authored, edited, or co-edited 300 books, book chapters, and articles—including 106 books. Before arriving at Penn State in 1993, he had 20 years of work experience as a Training Director, HR and Organization Development professional in government and in Fortune 50 multinational company. In 2012 he earned ASTD’s prestigious Distinguished Contribution to Workplace Learning and Performance Award, and in 2013 ASTD honored him by naming him as a Certified Professional in Learning and Performance (CPLP) Fellow. In 2014 he was given the Asia-Pacific International Personality Brandlaureate Award. In 2016 he was named at Distinguished Alum of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and at Penn State University he was also given the College Outstanding Research Award. His recent books include Organization Development in Practice (ODNETWORK, 2016), Mastering the Instructional Design Process, 5th ed. (Wiley, 2016), Effective Succession Planning, 5th ed. (Amacom, 2015), Practicing Organization Development, 4th ed. (Wiley, 2015), The Leader’s Daily Role in Talent Management (McGraw-Hill, 2015), Beyond Training and Development, 3rd ed. (HRD Press, 2015), Career Planning and Succession Management, 2nd ed. (Praeger, 2015), Organization Development Fundamentals: Managing Strategic Change (ATD Press, 2015), The Competency Toolkit, 2 vols, 2nd ed. (HRD Press, 2015), Creating Engaged Employees: It’s Worth the Investment (ATD Press, 2014), Optimizing Talent in the Federal Workforce (Management Concepts, 2014), Performance Consulting (Wiley, 2014), the ASTD Competency Study: The Training and Development Profession Redefined (ASTD, 2013), Becoming An Effective Mentoring Leader: Proven Strategies for Building Excellence in Your Organization (McGraw-Hill, 2013), Talent Management: A Step-by-Step Action-Oriented Approach Based on Best Practice (HRD Press, 2012), the edited three-volume Encyclopedia of Human Resource Management (Wiley/Pfeiffer, 2012), Lean But Agile: Rethink Workforce Planning and Gain a True Competitive Advantage (Amacom, 2012), Invaluable Knowledge: Securing Your Company’s Technical Expertise-Recruiting and Retaining Top Talent, Transferring Technical Knowledge, Engaging High Performers (Amacom, 2011), and Competency-Based Training Basics (ASTD Press, 2010).
Learning Points
Upon completing this session, participants will be able to: • Define potential (in more than one way) and distinguish it from performance • Explain why assessing potential is important • Review how potential assessment relates to the larger framework of succession planning and talent management • Describe common and not-so-common ways to assess promotion potential Brief Outline I. Introduction II. Defining Promotion Potential • More than one way to understand the concept • Common definition III. How Promotion Potential Relates to the Framework of Succession Planning and Talent Management IV. Approaches to Assessing Promotion Potential V. Final Questions and Answers
Who Will Participate
BPI members and invited guests
Key Takeaways
- 1.Assessing promotion potential is a critical component of effective succession planning and talent management.
- 2.Fewer than 40% of U.S. employers assess promotion potential separately from an individual's current job performance.
- 3.Equating current job success with future potential at higher levels is a common and costly promotion error.
- 4.To improve promotion accuracy, potential must be defined and assessed distinctly from present job performance.
- 5.This session reviews common and uncommon methods for assessing an employee's potential for promotion.
- 6.Understanding the different ways to define "potential" is foundational to a comprehensive assessment process.
The Problem with Promoting High Performers
Assessing an employee's potential for promotion is a critical challenge in succession planning and talent management. How can leaders know if an individual will succeed in a job with greater responsibility if they have only seen them perform in their current role?
The common approach often leads to trouble. Research indicates that fewer than 40% of U.S. employers assess promotion potential separately from current job performance. This creates a significant danger: the assumption that success in a present job guarantees success at higher levels of responsibility. This assumption is a leading cause of promotion mistakes, which are difficult and costly to correct.
A Framework for Better Promotion Decisions
This session with Dr. William Rothwell, a leading expert on succession planning and talent management, reviews practical ways to assess promotion potential separately from job performance. By decoupling these two metrics, organizations can build a more robust and accurate talent pipeline.
Key Learning Objectives
Upon completing the session, participants will be able to:
- Define "potential" in multiple ways and distinguish it from "performance."
- Explain why a separate assessment of potential is crucial for the organization.
- Situate potential assessment within the larger frameworks of succession planning and talent management.
- Describe various methods to assess promotion potential effectively.
This session delves into crucial methodologies for evaluating an individual's readiness and capacity for senior executive roles. Understanding and implementing these assessment techniques remains vital for organizations seeking to build resilient leadership pipelines and ensure long-term stability and growth.
What you'll learn
- Key criteria for evaluating promotion potential among senior executives.
- Methods for aligning individual capabilities with future organizational needs.
- Strategies to integrate promotion assessments into broader succession planning frameworks.
- Techniques for identifying high-potential leaders effectively.
- How to differentiate between performance and potential in talent evaluations.
Who this webinar is for
- Senior HR leaders and executives.
- Talent management professionals.
- Organizational development specialists.
- Succession planning committees and directors.
- Leaders responsible for team growth and career pathing.
Why it matters now
Effective executive promotion assessment is more critical than ever in today's rapidly evolving business landscape. Organizations face constant pressure to innovate and adapt, requiring a steady stream of capable leaders ready to step into critical roles. Proactive and data-driven methods for evaluating potential help prevent leadership gaps, reduce recruitment costs, and ensure continuity during times of change. This systematic approach supports internal mobility and fosters a culture of development, making an organization more attractive to top talent.
How leaders can apply this
Leaders can apply insights from this discussion by implementing structured assessment processes within their organizations. Begin by clearly defining the competencies and experiences required for future executive positions. Utilize a combination of performance data, 360-degree feedback, developmental assignments, and strategic interviews to gauge potential. As William Rothwell emphasizes, focus not just on past achievements, but also on learning agility, adaptability, and the capacity to handle increased scope and complexity. Develop personalized development plans for high-potential individuals, offering mentorship and opportunities to stretch their capabilities, thereby preparing them for seamless transitions into senior roles.
About this session
Key takeaways
Watching this webinar gives you grounded, practical perspective on selection, promotion, succession planning, succession management, and talent management. Expect ideas you can use in leadership conversations, not abstract theory, drawn from William Rothwell's direct experience.
Who this is for
CHROs, HR business partners, talent leaders, executive coaches, organizational development practitioners, and senior leaders who are responsible for selection inside their organization.
Why it matters now
Workforce expectations, hybrid work patterns, and AI-driven change keep raising the bar on culture and leadership. Sessions like this help leaders make smarter, more evidence-informed decisions about selection, promotion, succession planning, succession management, and talent management.
How to apply it
Use the ideas here to challenge a current assumption on your team, design a single concrete experiment in the next 30 days, and bring one finding back to your leadership group for discussion.